Odds to win division: Nationals (-400), Mets (+400), Marlins (+800), Phillies (off), Braves (off) % Chance by Fangraphs: Nationals, 80%, Mets 6%, Marlins, 4%, Phillies 0, Braves 0
The Phillies will still be an interesting team to follow in the second half of 2016. Aaron Nola has seemed to have hit his rookie slump and Vincent Velasquez has already had a minor injury. Then there is Jerad Eickhoff who is almost underrated in value with the two others. They are closer to competing than the Braves and may have some value late in the season.
As for the Marlins and Mets, both have to be big time buyers to catch the Nats. Yoenis Cespedes is carrying the load as it is and would shatter his career highs if he kept this pace. Add in the Matt Harvey injury and this team is in trouble. That is in terms of the division. If Zach Wheeler can step into Harvey’s shoes, and they can find a bat they can try to grab the wild card.
As for the Marlins, they have an ace, an outfield and a bullpen. They are on the right track, and are potentially another starting arm away from making noise. Adam Conley looks to be legitimate and Wei Yen Chen as a fourth would sound like a really competitive rotation. They will get Dee Gordon back late into the season and if they can stay within the wild card they could definitely compete for a playoff spot this season.
The Marlins make it tough to invest in the Nationals, as well as the Nats past history. Last time I checked, Jonathan Papelbon is still on that roster. Dusty Baker is a bigger name than a manager and while every indicator points to them cruising, it is not really worth an investment.