Tonight the Giants will host the Rockies, where we’ll have a pitching matchup of Madison Bumgarner (9-4) 2.28 ERA vs Tyler Chatwood (8-4) 3.15 ERA. The Giants won the first game of this series last night 3-1. The Giants opened as (-205) money line faves, and that number has since jumped to (-235) on Bovada. Both teams have been in a little slump where the Giants have gone 5-5 in their last 10, and the Rockies have gone 3-7 in their last 10, however the Giants will have the distinct pitching advantage tonight.
Bumgarner has been the second best pitcher in baseball this year dominating good and bad lineups. He’s given up 7 runs in his last two outings, but the 1 walk and 11 K’s are promising leading up to this matchup. He is 2-0 against Colorado this year pitching 13.1 innings, allowing 4 earned runs, while striking out 16 batters. In his last 5 outings against Colorado, San Francisco has gone 5-0. His BB/9 is down a tad from last year, but he has only given up 2 walks or less in his last 9 starts, and what really matters is he isn’t giving up runs evidenced by his 2.20 ERA. It also helps that he’ll be pitching in pitcher friendly AT&T Park.
Chatwood will have the monumental task of going pitch for pitch against Bumgarner, which is a daunting task to ask out of anyone, but at least he doesn’t have to pitch in Colorado’s high altitude. Even so he has a great HR/9 rate of 0.63, which is pretty darn good especially if your a Rockies pitcher. However San Francisco isn’t a HR hitting team as they rank 28th in home runs this season. San Francisco is an OBP team where they rank 4th overall, and this can be a problem as Chatwood has allowed 13 walks in his last 4 outings. San Francisco is also one of the hardest teams to strikeout, while Chatwood only has 4 K’s in his last 2 outings.
Colorado has a good lineup to compete against Bumgarner, but this will be Chatwood’s first start since landing on the DL with a back problem. Also losing 6 in a row, and this being Colorado’s 5th game on the road, this team could be feeling a little demoralized, and we could see Chatwoods xFIP of 4.25 come to fruition tonight in AT&T Park. San Francisco is big money line favorites, but they are heavy favorites because of their pitching matchup, which is why we feel comfortable laying the -1.5 spread.
San Francisco is 5-2 against Colorado in their last 7, while going 14-5 in their last 19 games at home. Colorado has lost their last 5 road games, and are 0-5 ATS in their last 5.
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